Prediksi & Akurasi
Setiap prediksi ditulis sebelum kickoff, disimpan tanpa diubah, lalu diselesaikan hanya dari hasil 90 menit. Angka di halaman ini dihitung dari ledger tersebut, bukan klaim. Satu laga dihitung sekali memakai forecast terakhir sebelum kickoff.
Prediksi diselesaikan
11
11 forecast tersettle · 1 baris per laga
Hit rate
36.4%
4 dari 11 benar
Brier (3 arah)
0.7164
Lebih rendah lebih baik; tebakan seragam = 0,667
Log loss
1.1558
Hukuman untuk keyakinan yang salah
Skill vs baseline liga
4.1%
Brier baseline (frekuensi home/draw/away liga): 0.7471. Skill = 1 − Brier/Brier baseline.
Keyakinan rata-rata
57.9%
Rata-rata probabilitas pilihan teratas. Bandingkan dengan hit rate untuk melihat apakah model terlalu percaya diri.
Snapshot terakhir: 8 laga, Brier 0.8317, 11/11/2026, 22.20.51
Menunggu hasil
Prediksi yang sudah terkunci sebelum kickoff. Baris ini akan pindah ke tabel hasil setelah laga berstatus FT.
| Laga | Kickoff | Home | Draw | Away | Pilihan | Jarak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BYU vs Colorado Model Poisson (rating tim) | 11 Nov, 22.30 | 35% | 27% | 38% | Away · 38% | 0 hari |
Boise State vs San Diego State Model Poisson (rating tim) | 11 Nov, 23.00 | 59% | 24% | 16% | Home · 59% | 0 hari |
Loyola Marymount vs Santa Clara Model Poisson (rating tim) | 11 Nov, 23.00 | 49% | 29% | 22% | Home · 49% | 0 hari |
Indiana vs Maryland Model Poisson (rating tim) | 11 Nov, 23.00 | 35% | 24% | 41% | Away · 41% | 0 hari |
Army vs Boston University Model Poisson (rating tim) | 11 Nov, 23.00 | 28% | 26% | 45% | Away · 45% | 0 hari |
UAlbany vs NJIT Model Poisson (rating tim) | 11 Nov, 23.30 | 48% | 23% | 30% | Home · 48% | 0 hari |
West Virginia vs Coastal Carolina Model Poisson (rating tim) | 12 Nov, 00.00 | 55% | 23% | 23% | Home · 55% | 0 hari |
Dayton vs La Salle Model Poisson (rating tim) | 12 Nov, 00.00 | 51% | 27% | 22% | Home · 51% | 0 hari |
Marist vs Sacred Heart Model Poisson (rating tim) | 12 Nov, 00.00 | 29% | 25% | 46% | Away · 46% | 0 hari |
Marshall vs South Carolina Model Poisson (rating tim) | 12 Nov, 00.00 | 61% | 20% | 19% | Home · 61% | 0 hari |
Memphis vs Rice Model Poisson (rating tim) | 12 Nov, 00.00 | 49% | 28% | 23% | Home · 49% | 0 hari |
DC Power FC vs Brooklyn FC Model Poisson (rating tim) | 12 Nov, 00.00 | 57% | 24% | 18% | Home · 57% | 0 hari |
Bowling Green vs UIC Model Poisson (rating tim) | 12 Nov, 00.00 | 42% | 29% | 29% | Home · 42% | 0 hari |
Fairfield vs Merrimack Model Poisson (rating tim) | 12 Nov, 00.00 | 24% | 26% | 50% | Away · 50% | 0 hari |
Vermont vs Bryant Model Poisson (rating tim) | 12 Nov, 00.00 | 43% | 22% | 35% | Home · 43% | 0 hari |
Kalibrasi
Kelompok berdasarkan probabilitas pilihan teratas. Garis ideal: hit rate = keyakinan.
| Bucket keyakinan | n | Keyakinan | Hit rate | Selisih |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.33-0.47 | 2 | 42.6% | 50.0% | +7.4% |
| 0.47-0.60 | 5 | 54.5% | 20.0% | -34.5% |
| 0.60-0.73 | 3 | 63.1% | 33.3% | -29.8% |
| 0.87-1.00 | 1 | 89.7% | 100.0% | +10.3% |
Per model
Model vs konsensus pasar pada laga yang sama.
| Model | n | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model Poisson (rating tim) | 8 | 25.0% | 0.8317 |
| Konsensus pasar 1X2 | 3 | 66.7% | 0.4090 |
Tren harian
Hanya hari yang punya hasil selesai.
| Tanggal | n | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | 11 | 36.4% | 0.7164 |
Terbaru diselesaikan
Probabilitas yang tertulis sebelum kickoff, bukan rekonstruksi setelah hasil.
| Laga | Prediksi | Hasil | Brier | Jarak | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Juventus vs OL Lyonnes 11/11/2026 · Konsensus pasar 1X2 | Away 90% | Away | 0.016 | 0 hari | |
Juventus vs OL Lyonnes 11/11/2026 · Model Poisson (rating tim) | Away 43% | Away | 0.494 | 0 hari | |
Milwaukee vs Cleveland State 11/11/2026 · Model Poisson (rating tim) | Home 42% | Away | 0.667 | 0 hari | |
Northern Arizona vs Idaho State 11/11/2026 · Model Poisson (rating tim) | Home 67% | Draw | 1.160 | 0 hari | |
OH Leuven vs HB Køge 11/11/2026 · Model Poisson (rating tim) | Home 59% | Draw | 1.094 | 0 hari | |
OH Leuven vs HB Køge 11/11/2026 · Konsensus pasar 1X2 | Away 59% | Draw | 0.997 | 0 hari | |
Navy vs Loyola Maryland 11/11/2026 · Model Poisson (rating tim) | Home 53% | Draw | 0.890 | 0 hari | |
FC Fleury 91 vs Toulouse 11/11/2026 · Model Poisson (rating tim) | Home 49% | Home | 0.395 | 0 hari | |
FC Fleury 91 vs Toulouse 11/11/2026 · Konsensus pasar 1X2 | Home 62% | Home | 0.214 | 0 hari | |
Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka 11/11/2026 · Model Poisson (rating tim) | Away 60% | Home | 1.076 | 0 hari | |
India vs Maldives 11/11/2026 · Model Poisson (rating tim) | Away 52% | Home | 0.879 | 0 hari |
Per kompetisi
Minimum 3 hasil selesai per liga.
| Kompetisi | n | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Women's Champions League | 4 | 50.0% | 0.6502 |
Batas yang disengaja: laga yang diputuskan lewat perpanjangan waktu atau penalti tidak diselesaikan sebagai 1X2 karena skor 90 menitnya tidak tersimpan terpisah. Prediksi tersebut tetap di ledger dan dihitung sebagai menunggu, bukan sebagai benar.